Media outlets will remind us that the S&P 500 is down about 10%, but you may be feeling a little more angst than you think you should for a 10% correction. After all, this year has been much more challenging than your normal 10% correction.
What we see is a market that failed to be roiled by bond selling or tariff news. We found ourselves recognizing that all really is quiet on the bearish front.
One week of trading doesn’t change decades of precedent for the world’s primary “safe” asset, but reports that the global marketplace is rethinking risk for US government bonds is deeply unsettling for several reasons.
If a genuine unwinding gets underway, there is a long way to go on the downside. But it is too soon to declare that. Yes, volatility bulls were unable to cling on to the weekly highs, but there are several layers of defendable support underneath.
Wall Street ended the week on a strong note, with major indices posting their best weekly performance in years, as traders appeared confident that the escalation in the U.S.-China trade war — which led to triple-digit tariff increases on both sides — would be resolved in the near term.
US treasury market remains unsettled as inflation reports fail to calm yields, fueling speculation of Fed policy changes. PPI drops 0.4% in Mar, largest since 2023. Despite cooling inflation, yields rise and bond market remains skeptical. Tariffs may be distorting data.
